Recent insights from Asian refiners indicate a strategic shift as Middle Eastern crude suppliers focus on regaining market share in the Far East rather than solely supporting oil prices. A survey revealed that many refiners expect crude prices to remain within the $60-$70 per barrel range in early 2025 due to tepid demand overshadowing supply-side risks. This comes at a time when US crude supplies are abundant and increasingly appealing to Asian markets.

Refiners from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan report that they may rely less on Middle Eastern crude as US imports continue to rise significantly. For instance, South Korea's imports from the US reached record levels in the first nine months of 2024. This trend suggests that Asian refiners are adapting their procurement strategies in response to changing market dynamics and pricing pressures from Middle Eastern suppliers.

The outlook for oil prices remains uncertain as geopolitical tensions and economic conditions continue to influence demand forecasts. While some analysts warn of potential price spikes due to conflicts such as those involving Iran and Israel, others believe that steady supply from US producers will keep prices relatively stable in the near term. As refiners navigate these complexities, their ability to adapt will be crucial for maintaining profitability in an evolving global oil landscape.